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There is a lack of evidence associating intraoperative transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) use with improved outcomes among coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery subpopulations.This matched retrospective cohort study used a US private claims dataset to compare outcomes among different CABG surgery patient populations with vs without TOE. Statistical analyses involved exact matching on pre-selected subgroups (congestive heart failure, single vessel, and multivessel CABG) and used fine and propensity-score balanced techniques to conduct multiple matched comparisons and sensitivity analyses.Of 42 249 patients undergoing isolated CABG surgery, 24 919 (59.0%) received and 17 330 (41.0%) did not receive TOE. After matching, intraoperative TOE was significantly associated with a lower, 30-day mortality: 2.63% vs 3.20% (odds ratio [OR]: 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71–0.92; P=0.002). In the subgroup matched comparisons, intraoperative TOE was significantly associated with a lower, 30-daymortality rate among those with congestive heart failure: 4.20% vs 5.26% (OR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.66–0.94; P=0.007) and among those undergoing multivessel CABG with congestive heart failure: 4.23% vs 5.24% (OR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.65–0.97; P=0.025), but not among those undergoing multivessel CABG without congestive heart failure: 1.83% vs 2.15% (OR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.70–1.02; P=0.089, nor any of the remaining three subgroups. Among US adults undergoing isolated CABG surgery, intraoperative TOE was associated with improved outcomes in patients with congestive heart failure (vs without) and among patients undergoing multivessel (vs single vessel) CABG. These findings support prioritised TOE allocation to these patient populations at centres with limited TOE capabilities.

The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (NCT02716675 and NCT02568215) demonstrated that passive administration of the broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody VRC01 could prevent some HIV-1 acquisition events. Here, we use mathematical modeling in a post hoc analysis to demonstrate that VRC01 influenced viral loads in AMP participants who acquired HIV. Instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP), which integrates VRC01 serum concentration and VRC01 sensitivity of acquired viruses in terms of both IC50 and IC80, follows a dose-response relationship with first positive viral load (p = 0.03), which is particularly strong above a threshold of IIP = 1.6 (r = -0.6, p = 2e-4). Mathematical modeling reveals that VRC01 activity predicted from in vitro IC80s and serum VRC01 concentrations overestimates in vivo neutralization by 600-fold (95% CI: 300–1200). The trained model projects that even if future therapeutic HIV trials of combination monoclonal antibodies do not always prevent acquisition, reductions in viremia and reservoir size could be expected.

Many recent efforts center on assessing the ability of real-world evidence (RWE) generated from non-randomized, observational data to produce results compatible with those from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). One noticeable endeavor is the RCT DUPLICATE initiative. To better reconcile findings from an observational study and an RCT, or two observational studies based on different databases, it is desirable to eliminate differences between study populations. We outline an efficient, network-flow-based statistical matching algorithm that designs well-matched pairs from observational data that resemble the covariate distributions of a target population, for instance, the target-RCT-eligible population in the RCT DUPLICATE initiative studies or a generic population of scientific interest. We demonstrate the usefulness of the method by revisiting the inconsistency regarding a cardioprotective effect of the hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) clinical trial and corresponding observational study. We found that the discrepancy between the trial and observational study persisted in a design that adjusted for the difference in study populations' cardiovascular risk profile, but seemed to disappear in a study design that further adjusted for the difference in HRT initiation age and previous estrogen-plus-progestin use. The proposed method is integrated into the R package match2C.

Rosenbaum and Rubin’s (1983) propensity score revolutionized the field of causal inference and has emerged as a standard tool when researchers reason about cause-and-effect relationship across many disciplines. This discussion centers around the key “no interference” assumption in Rosenbaum and Rubin’s original development of the propensity score and reviews some recent advances in extending the propensity score to studies involving dependent happenings.

The location of Plasmodium falciparum within the body is determined by the life cycle of the parasite; young rings are in the peripheral blood, whereas mature parasites are sequestered in deep tissues. We can calculate a “ring ratio,” the proportion of parasites in the periphery to the total number of parasites in the body. Artesunate acts on all parasite life stages, whereas quinine is effective only on sequestered parasites. Children with cerebral malaria (CM) treated with artesunate clear parasites faster than those treated with quinine. In this study, we established the relationship between ring ratio and parasite clearance rate and used the ring ratio to determine if the benefit derived from artesunate treatment could be attributed to its broader effect on life cycle stages. Ring ratios were calculated for 400 hospitalized children with CM in Blantyre, Malawi between 2010 and 2019 (quinine: 2010–2013, artesunate: 2014–2019). In both treatment groups, parasite clearance rates were positively associated with the ring ratios, with a stronger association in the artesunate era than the quinine era. In the quinine era, an increase of 1-unit log10 difference between parasitemia and plasma P falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (a proxy for ring ratio) resulted in a 0.27-unit increase in the parasite clearance rate, whereas in the artesunate era an equal increase resulted in a 0.41-unit increase (P = .04 for the difference).This analysis provides in vivo evidence supporting the hypothesis that more rapid parasite clearance rates in artesunate recipients are due to its superiority over quinine in killing ring-stage parasites.

Intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is associated with improved outcomes after cardiac surgery, but unexplained practice pattern variation exists. This study aimed to identify and quantify the predictors of intraoperative TEE use among patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) or cardiac valve surgery. This observational cohort study used The Society of Thoracic Surgeon (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database data to identify and quantify the predictors of intraoperative TEE use among adult patients aged 18 years or more undergoing either isolated CABG or open cardiac valve repair or replacement surgery between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2019. Generalized linear mixed models were used to measure the relationship between intraoperative TEE and patient characteristics, surgical volume, and geographic location, while accounting for clustering within hospitals (primary analysis) or surgeons (secondary analysis). Of 1,973,655 patients, 1,365,708 underwent isolated CABG and 607,947 underwent cardiac valve surgery. Overall, intraoperative TEE was used in 62% of surgeries. The primary hospital-level generalized linear mixed models analysis demonstrated that the strongest predictor of intraoperative TEE use was the hospital where the surgery occurred—with a median odds ratio for TEE of 10.13 in isolated CABG and 5.30 in cardiac valve surgery. The secondary surgeon-level generalized linear mixed models analysis demonstrated similar findings. Intraoperative TEE use (vs lack of use) during surgery was more strongly associated with hospital and surgeon practice patterns than with any patient-level factor, surgical volume, or geographic location.

In malaria endemic areas, a high proportion of children have detectable parasitemia but show no clinical symptoms. When comatose from a cause other than malaria, this group confounds the cerebral malaria (CM) definition, making accurate diagnosis challenging. One important biomarker of CM is malarial retinopathy, a set of specific features visible in the ocular fundus. In this study, we quantified the contribution of malarial retinopathy in discriminating malaria-caused coma from non-malaria-caused coma. We estimated that 10% of our study cohort of n = 1,192 patients who met the WHO clinical definition of CM in Malawi had non-malarial coma based on a Gaussian mixture model using the parasite protein Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein-2 (PfHRP2). A classification based on platelets, white blood cells and retinopathy significantly improved the discriminative power of a previously established model including only platelets plus white blood cells (AUROC: 0.89 vs. 0.75, p-value < 0.001). We conclude that malarial retinopathy is highly predictive of malaria-caused vs. non-malaria-caused coma and recommend an ocular funduscopic examination to determine malarial retinopathy status be included in the assessment of parasitemic comatose African children.

Cerebral malaria is still a major cause of death in children in sub-Saharan Africa. Among survivors, debilitating neurological sequelae can leave children with permanent cognitive impairments and societal stigma, resulting in taxing repercussions for their families. This study investigated the effect of delay in presentation to medical care on outcome in children with cerebral malaria in Malawi.

We examine the role of textual data as study units when conducting causal inference by drawing parallels between human subjects and organized texts. We elaborate on key causal concepts and principles, and expose some ambiguity and sometimes fallacies. To facilitate better framing a causal query, we discuss two strategies: (i) shifting from immutable traits to perceptions of them, and (ii) shifting from some abstract concept/property to its constituent parts, i.e., a constructivist perspective of an abstract concept. We hope this article would raise the awareness of the importance of articulating and clarifying fundamental concepts before delving into developing methodologies when drawing causal inference using textual data.

This paper proposes to embed a class of observational IV data into a cluster-randomized encouragement experiment using nonbipartite matching. Potential outcomes and causal assumptions underpinning the design are formalized and examined. Testing procedures for two commonly used estimands, Fisher’s sharp null hypothesis and the pooled effect ratio (PER), are extended to the current setting. We then introduce a novel cluster-heterogeneous proportional treatment effect model and the relevant estimand: the average cluster effect ratio. This new estimand allows treatment heterogeneity, and is advantageous over the PER estimand in that it does not suffer from Simpson’s paradox. We develop an asymptotically valid randomization-based testing procedure for this new estimand based on solving a mixed-integer quadratically constrained optimization problem.