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In the phase 3 Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial (NCT04470427), post-dose two Ancestral Spike-specific binding (bAb) and neutralizing (nAb) antibodies were shown to be correlates of risk (CoR) and of protection against Ancestral-lineage COVID-19 in SARS-CoV-2 naive participants. In the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron era, Omicron subvariants with varying degrees of immune escape now dominate, seropositivity rates are high, and booster doses are administered, raising questions on whether and how these developments affect the bAb and nAb correlates. To address these questions, we assess post-boost BA.1 Spike-specific bAbs and nAbs as CoRs and as correlates of booster efficacy in COVE. For naive individuals, bAbs and nAbs inversely correlate with Omicron COVID-19: hazard ratios (HR) per 10-fold marker increase (95% confidence interval) are 0.16 (0.03, 0.79) and 0.31 (0.10, 0.96), respectively. In non-naive individuals the analogous results are similar: 0.15 (0.04, 0.63) and 0.28 (0.07, 1.08). For naive individuals, three vs two-dose booster efficacy correlates with predicted nAb titer at exposure, with estimates -8% (-126%, 48%), 50% (25%, 67%), and 74% (49%, 87%), at 56, 251, and 891 Arbitrary Units/ml. These results support the continued use of antibody as a surrogate endpoint.

Randomization inference is a powerful tool in early phase vaccine trials when estimating the causal effect of a regimen against a placebo or another regimen. Randomization-based inference often focuses on testing either Fisher’s sharp null hypothesis of no treatment effect for any participant or Neyman’s weak null hypothesis of no sample average treatment effect. Many recent efforts have explored conducting exact randomization-based inference for other summaries of the treatment effect profile, for instance, quantiles of the treatment effect distribution function. In this article, we systematically review methods that conduct exact, randomization-based inference for quantiles of individual treatment effects (ITEs) and extend some results to a special case where naïve participants are expected not to exhibit responses to highly specific endpoints. These methods are suitable for completely randomized trials, stratified completely randomized trials, and a matched study comparing two non-randomized arms from possibly different trials. We evaluate the usefulness of these methods using synthetic data in simulation studies. Finally, we apply these methods to HIV Vaccine Trials Network Study 086 (HVTN 086) and HVTN 205 and showcase a wide range of application scenarios of the methods.

Malaria is a significant obstacle to child health and survival. Plasmodium falciparum infections, especially in children under five, lead to high morbidity and mortality. Cerebral malaria (CM) is a life-threatening complication characterized by coma, and its diagnosis can be improved by observing malarial retinopathy in children. Monitoring vital signs is essential for managing patients with CM. To determine if changes in vital signs predict death in children with retinopathy positive cerebral malaria (RPCM). This was a retrospective case-control study using data collected from children admitted to the Paediatric Research Ward at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Blantyre between 1997 and 2020. Patients who died 24 hours or more after admission were matched with control patients who survived. Linear regression analyses were used to assess the differential time trends of each vital sign in the survivor group and death group. Classification models were used to quantify various vital signs’ predictive power of death. Among the population that died, the estimated change in average respiratory rate per hour approaching death was 0.02 breaths per minute compared to -0.25 breaths per minute among those who survive (p < 0.001), and the estimated change in average BCS per hour approaching death was -0.01 compared to 0.06 among the survivors (p < 0.001). Changes in temperature and heart rate were not associated with clinical deterioration. Three models were developed, and the best receiver operating characteristic curve was 100% sensitive, the corresponding false positive rate was 75%. Changes in respiratory rate and BCS have prognostic significance in the final 24 hours before death in children with cerebral malaria. Extra attention should be paid to these two vital signs as they may help to identify children who are at increased risk of deteriorating.

In many clinical settings, an active-controlled trial design (e.g., a non-inferiority or superiority design) is often used to compare an experimental medicine to an active control (e.g., an FDA-approved, standard therapy). One prominent example is a recent phase 3 efficacy trial, HIV Prevention Trials Network Study 084 (HPTN 084), comparing long-acting cabotegravir, a new HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) agent, to the FDA-approved daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) in a population of heterosexual women in 7 African countries. One key complication of interpreting study results in an active-controlled trial like HPTN 084 is that the placebo arm is not present and the efficacy of the active control (and hence the experimental drug) compared to the placebo can only be inferred by leveraging other data sources. In this article, we study statistical inference for the intention-to-treat (ITT) effect of the active control using relevant historical placebo-controlled trials data under the potential outcomes (PO) framework. We highlight the role of adherence and unmeasured confounding, discuss in detail identification assumptions and two modes of inference (point vs. partial identification), propose estimators under identification assumptions permitting point identification, and lay out sensitivity analyses needed to relax identification assumptions. We applied our framework to estimating the intention-to-treat effect of daily oral TDF/FTC versus placebo in HPTN 084 using data from an earlier Phase 3, placebo-controlled trial of daily oral TDF/FTC (Partners PrEP). Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

There is a lack of evidence associating intraoperative transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) use with improved outcomes among coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery subpopulations.This matched retrospective cohort study used a US private claims dataset to compare outcomes among different CABG surgery patient populations with vs without TOE. Statistical analyses involved exact matching on pre-selected subgroups (congestive heart failure, single vessel, and multivessel CABG) and used fine and propensity-score balanced techniques to conduct multiple matched comparisons and sensitivity analyses.Of 42 249 patients undergoing isolated CABG surgery, 24 919 (59.0%) received and 17 330 (41.0%) did not receive TOE. After matching, intraoperative TOE was significantly associated with a lower, 30-day mortality: 2.63% vs 3.20% (odds ratio [OR]: 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71–0.92; P=0.002). In the subgroup matched comparisons, intraoperative TOE was significantly associated with a lower, 30-daymortality rate among those with congestive heart failure: 4.20% vs 5.26% (OR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.66–0.94; P=0.007) and among those undergoing multivessel CABG with congestive heart failure: 4.23% vs 5.24% (OR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.65–0.97; P=0.025), but not among those undergoing multivessel CABG without congestive heart failure: 1.83% vs 2.15% (OR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.70–1.02; P=0.089, nor any of the remaining three subgroups. Among US adults undergoing isolated CABG surgery, intraoperative TOE was associated with improved outcomes in patients with congestive heart failure (vs without) and among patients undergoing multivessel (vs single vessel) CABG. These findings support prioritised TOE allocation to these patient populations at centres with limited TOE capabilities.

The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (NCT02716675 and NCT02568215) demonstrated that passive administration of the broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody VRC01 could prevent some HIV-1 acquisition events. Here, we use mathematical modeling in a post hoc analysis to demonstrate that VRC01 influenced viral loads in AMP participants who acquired HIV. Instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP), which integrates VRC01 serum concentration and VRC01 sensitivity of acquired viruses in terms of both IC50 and IC80, follows a dose-response relationship with first positive viral load (p = 0.03), which is particularly strong above a threshold of IIP = 1.6 (r = -0.6, p = 2e-4). Mathematical modeling reveals that VRC01 activity predicted from in vitro IC80s and serum VRC01 concentrations overestimates in vivo neutralization by 600-fold (95% CI: 300–1200). The trained model projects that even if future therapeutic HIV trials of combination monoclonal antibodies do not always prevent acquisition, reductions in viremia and reservoir size could be expected.

Many recent efforts center on assessing the ability of real-world evidence (RWE) generated from non-randomized, observational data to produce results compatible with those from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). One noticeable endeavor is the RCT DUPLICATE initiative. To better reconcile findings from an observational study and an RCT, or two observational studies based on different databases, it is desirable to eliminate differences between study populations. We outline an efficient, network-flow-based statistical matching algorithm that designs well-matched pairs from observational data that resemble the covariate distributions of a target population, for instance, the target-RCT-eligible population in the RCT DUPLICATE initiative studies or a generic population of scientific interest. We demonstrate the usefulness of the method by revisiting the inconsistency regarding a cardioprotective effect of the hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) clinical trial and corresponding observational study. We found that the discrepancy between the trial and observational study persisted in a design that adjusted for the difference in study populations' cardiovascular risk profile, but seemed to disappear in a study design that further adjusted for the difference in HRT initiation age and previous estrogen-plus-progestin use. The proposed method is integrated into the R package match2C.

Rosenbaum and Rubin’s (1983) propensity score revolutionized the field of causal inference and has emerged as a standard tool when researchers reason about cause-and-effect relationship across many disciplines. This discussion centers around the key “no interference” assumption in Rosenbaum and Rubin’s original development of the propensity score and reviews some recent advances in extending the propensity score to studies involving dependent happenings.

The location of Plasmodium falciparum within the body is determined by the life cycle of the parasite; young rings are in the peripheral blood, whereas mature parasites are sequestered in deep tissues. We can calculate a “ring ratio,” the proportion of parasites in the periphery to the total number of parasites in the body. Artesunate acts on all parasite life stages, whereas quinine is effective only on sequestered parasites. Children with cerebral malaria (CM) treated with artesunate clear parasites faster than those treated with quinine. In this study, we established the relationship between ring ratio and parasite clearance rate and used the ring ratio to determine if the benefit derived from artesunate treatment could be attributed to its broader effect on life cycle stages. Ring ratios were calculated for 400 hospitalized children with CM in Blantyre, Malawi between 2010 and 2019 (quinine: 2010–2013, artesunate: 2014–2019). In both treatment groups, parasite clearance rates were positively associated with the ring ratios, with a stronger association in the artesunate era than the quinine era. In the quinine era, an increase of 1-unit log10 difference between parasitemia and plasma P falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (a proxy for ring ratio) resulted in a 0.27-unit increase in the parasite clearance rate, whereas in the artesunate era an equal increase resulted in a 0.41-unit increase (P = .04 for the difference).This analysis provides in vivo evidence supporting the hypothesis that more rapid parasite clearance rates in artesunate recipients are due to its superiority over quinine in killing ring-stage parasites.

Intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is associated with improved outcomes after cardiac surgery, but unexplained practice pattern variation exists. This study aimed to identify and quantify the predictors of intraoperative TEE use among patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) or cardiac valve surgery. This observational cohort study used The Society of Thoracic Surgeon (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database data to identify and quantify the predictors of intraoperative TEE use among adult patients aged 18 years or more undergoing either isolated CABG or open cardiac valve repair or replacement surgery between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2019. Generalized linear mixed models were used to measure the relationship between intraoperative TEE and patient characteristics, surgical volume, and geographic location, while accounting for clustering within hospitals (primary analysis) or surgeons (secondary analysis). Of 1,973,655 patients, 1,365,708 underwent isolated CABG and 607,947 underwent cardiac valve surgery. Overall, intraoperative TEE was used in 62% of surgeries. The primary hospital-level generalized linear mixed models analysis demonstrated that the strongest predictor of intraoperative TEE use was the hospital where the surgery occurred—with a median odds ratio for TEE of 10.13 in isolated CABG and 5.30 in cardiac valve surgery. The secondary surgeon-level generalized linear mixed models analysis demonstrated similar findings. Intraoperative TEE use (vs lack of use) during surgery was more strongly associated with hospital and surgeon practice patterns than with any patient-level factor, surgical volume, or geographic location.